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Analysis

This paper introduces a new metric, eigen microstate entropy ($S_{EM}$), to detect and interpret phase transitions, particularly in non-equilibrium systems. The key contribution is the demonstration that $S_{EM}$ can provide early warning signals for phase transitions, as shown in both biological and climate systems. This has significant implications for understanding and predicting complex phenomena.
Reference

A significant increase in $S_{EM}$ precedes major phase transitions, observed before biomolecular condensate formation and El Niño events.

Analysis

This paper addresses the challenge of studying rare, extreme El Niño events, which have significant global impacts, by employing a rare event sampling technique called TEAMS. The authors demonstrate that TEAMS can accurately and efficiently estimate the return times of these events using a simplified ENSO model (Zebiak-Cane), achieving similar results to a much longer direct numerical simulation at a fraction of the computational cost. This is significant because it provides a more computationally feasible method for studying rare climate events, potentially applicable to more complex climate models.
Reference

TEAMS accurately reproduces the return time estimates of the DNS at about one fifth the computational cost.

Analysis

This paper investigates different noise models to represent westerly wind bursts (WWBs) within a recharge oscillator model of ENSO. It highlights the limitations of the commonly used Gaussian noise and proposes Conditional Additive and Multiplicative (CAM) noise as a better alternative, particularly for capturing the sporadic nature of WWBs and the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The paper's significance lies in its potential to improve the accuracy of ENSO models by better representing the influence of WWBs on sea surface temperature (SST) dynamics.
Reference

CAM noise leads to an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events without the need for deterministic nonlinearities.