Rare Event Sampling for Extreme El Niño Analysis

This paper addresses the challenge of studying rare, extreme El Niño events, which have significant global impacts, by employing a rare event sampling technique called TEAMS. The authors demonstrate that TEAMS can accurately and efficiently estimate the return times of these events using a simplified ENSO model (Zebiak-Cane), achieving similar results to a much longer direct numerical simulation at a fraction of the computational cost. This is significant because it provides a more computationally feasible method for studying rare climate events, potentially applicable to more complex climate models.