Testing the Track: Machine Learning AI Takes on the Satsuki Sho in Year-Long Horse Racing Prediction Trial
Qiita AI•Apr 19, 2026 07:10•research▸▾
research#machine learning📝 Blog|Analyzed: Apr 19, 2026 07:15•
Published: Apr 19, 2026 07:10
•2 min read
•Qiita AIAnalysis
This article highlights an incredibly innovative application of machine learning outside the traditional tech spheres, using LightGBM to predict the outcomes of GI horse racing events like the Satsuki Sho. The creator's meticulous approach—deploying dual models for both speed index regression and top-three classification—demonstrates the exciting versatility of predictive algorithms. By utilizing rich datasets ranging from past performance metrics to jockey compatibility, this year-long experiment is a fascinating showcase of data-driven sports analytics.
Key Takeaways & Reference▶
- •Dual Model Strategy: The project utilizes two distinct LightGBM models—a regression model to predict the 'speed index' and a classification model to predict if a horse will finish in the top three.
- •Rich Feature Engineering: Predictions are based on a robust dataset scraped from netkeiba, incorporating 17+ features like horse compatibility with specific tracks, jockey affinity, and transport distance.
- •Year-Long Trial: The experiment will track the ROI (recovery rate) of betting on win tickets across all major GI races throughout 2026, culminating in a final evaluation at the Arima Kinen.
Reference / Citation
View Original"I would like to apply my original horse racing prediction model to GI races for the next year to verify its performance. This article serves as a record summarizing the prediction results of the verified races and my thoughts on the model's behavior based on the actual race results."