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Paper#LLM🔬 ResearchAnalyzed: Jan 3, 2026 06:36

BEDA: Belief-Constrained Strategic Dialogue

Published:Dec 31, 2025 14:26
1 min read
ArXiv

Analysis

This paper introduces BEDA, a framework that leverages belief estimation as probabilistic constraints to improve strategic dialogue act execution. The core idea is to use inferred beliefs to guide the generation of utterances, ensuring they align with the agent's understanding of the situation. The paper's significance lies in providing a principled mechanism to integrate belief estimation into dialogue generation, leading to improved performance across various strategic dialogue tasks. The consistent outperformance of BEDA over strong baselines across different settings highlights the effectiveness of this approach.
Reference

BEDA consistently outperforms strong baselines: on CKBG it improves success rate by at least 5.0 points across backbones and by 20.6 points with GPT-4.1-nano; on Mutual Friends it achieves an average improvement of 9.3 points; and on CaSiNo it achieves the optimal deal relative to all baselines.

Nonstationarity-Complexity Tradeoff in Stock Return Prediction

Published:Dec 29, 2025 16:49
1 min read
ArXiv

Analysis

This paper addresses a crucial challenge in financial time series prediction: the balance between model complexity and the impact of non-stationarity. It proposes a novel model selection method to overcome this tradeoff, demonstrating significant improvements in out-of-sample performance, especially during economic downturns. The economic impact, as evidenced by improved trading strategy returns, further validates the significance of the research.
Reference

Our method achieves positive $R^2$ during the Gulf War recession while benchmarks are negative, and improves $R^2$ in absolute terms by at least 80bps during the 2001 recession as well as superior performance during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Analysis

This paper introduces a novel framework, DCEN, for sparse recovery, particularly beneficial for high-dimensional variable selection with correlated features. It unifies existing models, provides theoretical guarantees for recovery, and offers efficient algorithms. The extension to image reconstruction (DCEN-TV) further enhances its applicability. The consistent outperformance over existing methods in various experiments highlights its significance.
Reference

DCEN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sparse signal recovery, high-dimensional variable selection under strong collinearity, and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) image reconstruction, achieving superior recovery accuracy and robustness.