Can Horse Racing AI Beat the Odds? LightGBM Doubles Winning Probability Using 35 Years of JRA Data
research#machine learning📝 Blog|Analyzed: Apr 22, 2026 00:45•
Published: Apr 22, 2026 00:34
•1 min read
•Zenn MLAnalysis
This fascinating experiment brilliantly demonstrates the power of machine learning by applying it to the unpredictable world of horse racing. By strictly excluding betting odds and relying solely on pre-race features like jockey and trainer statistics, the author created a highly effective predictive model. The resulting 15.62% win rate for the AI's top picks is an exciting proof-of-concept that showcases how pure data analysis can significantly outperform basic statistical baselines.
Key Takeaways
- •The AI model achieved a 15.62% win rate for its top 10% predictions, double the 7.45% statistical baseline.
- •Betting odds were entirely excluded to test pure predictive data against market sentiment and crowd psychology.
- •The author utilized a highly robust methodology with 35 years of JRA data and time-series splitting to prevent data leakage.
Reference / Citation
View Original"AI予測上位10%の馬 15.62% AIが「勝ちそう」と判断した馬は、統計確率の約2倍の勝率を示しました。"
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