Analysis
This article brilliantly explains why simply increasing the prediction accuracy of a horse racing AI doesn't guarantee profits. It emphasizes the crucial role of 'expected value' in determining long-term success, revealing that focusing on high-odds outcomes is key to maximizing returns.
Key Takeaways
- •The article demonstrates that higher prediction accuracy doesn't always translate to higher ROI in horse racing AI.
- •It highlights that focusing on 'expected value' (EV) is more crucial than hit rate for profitability.
- •The core strategy is to identify bets with an EV greater than 1.2, even if the accuracy is lower.
Reference / Citation
View Original"If you're building a horse racing AI, the goal should be, 'How many bets with EV > 1.2 can you find?'"